Gold at a Tipping Point: Bulls Hold Ground Amid Fading Momentum and Bearish Warnings

Gold (XAU/USD) enters the new trading week with a cautiously optimistic tone, buoyed by global uncertainty. The persistent geopolitical friction in the Middle East and a weaker U.S. Dollar continue to offer fundamental support. As a result, gold maintains strength above $3,340, a level that has become a key psychological floor.

Yet, the bullish run is being met with skepticism. Analysts from Quant Mutual Fund have forecasted a 12–15% correction for gold, warning of overextended technical conditions. This projection has tempered market enthusiasm, prompting traders to consider protective strategies despite the underlying bullish structure.

On the technical front, gold still trades comfortably above the 50-day EMA, reinforcing a near-term uptrend. However, declining RSI values suggest momentum may be fading, raising concerns of a possible price stall. Resistance is clustered around $3,366 and $3,392, with support near $3,340 and deeper at $3,300.

Outlook models remain broadly positive. CoinCodex anticipates a near 4% climb, with targets set at $3,562 this week. Optimistic projections even point to $3,635, contingent on continued risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions. However, any signs of global easing could cool the current rally significantly.

Traders should adopt a flexible stance with well-defined entry and exit points. A confirmed break above $3,366 may reignite bullish momentum and open the door to higher levels. Meanwhile, failure to hold the $3,340 zone could indicate the start of consolidation or a pullback phase.

Fundamentally, attention will turn to U.S. economic reports and central bank commentary. Any hawkish signal from the Fed could support the U.S. Dollar, putting downward pressure on gold. Conversely, dovish language or disappointing data may strengthen gold’s appeal as a safe-haven investment.

In conclusion, gold sits at a technically strong but vulnerable position. Bulls have the upper hand for now, but cracks are beginning to show through momentum indicators and institutional warnings. The next few sessions could determine whether gold breaks higher or slips into corrective territory.